China stock market sentiment drops as trading volume declines – Morgan Stanley

 ​Investor sentiment in China's A-share market has seen a decline, as evidenced by reduced trading volumes and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. Morgan Stanley's Market Sentiment and Activity Score Index (MSASI) reflected this downturn, with its weighted score dropping to 67% and the simple score to 56% as of December 25, 2024, indicating weaker enthusiasm compared to the prior week.

The decrease in trading activity was notable across various segments:

  • ChiNext: Average daily turnover fell by 16%.

  • A-shares: Experienced a 17% decline in trading volume.

  • Equity futures: Saw a 12% reduction.

  • Northbound trading: Decreased by 27%.

These figures highlight a significant pullback in market participation.

Morgan Stanley analysts have attributed this stagnation in market sentiment to disappointing macroeconomic indicators and reactive policy easing measures. They anticipate continued market volatility and recommend a more defensive investment approach in the near term.

Despite these challenges, there have been positive developments. Morgan Stanley recently raised its targets for key indices tracking Chinese stocks by more than 7%, reflecting renewed investor interest driven by strong corporate profits, enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and an easing of regulatory pressures.

While these upward revisions suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook, Morgan Stanley continues to monitor factors such as U.S.-China trade tensions and other geopolitical risks that could impact market performance.




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