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 Right now, markets are on a razor’s edge — and whether we get a Black Monday-style crash or a face-ripping rally depends on a few big wildcards in play: 📉 Black Monday Case: Markets could tank hard if any of these spiral: Tariff Fallout: Trump's sweeping tariffs are hitting real-time now. Global retaliation (China, EU, etc.) is escalating. If corporate margins and consumer prices get squeezed, recession fears intensify. Inflation Flare-Up: If new tariffs reignite inflation, the Fed may stay hawkish longer — bad for risk assets. Recession Risk: RBC just warned the S&P 500 could drop to 4,200–4,500 in a full-blown recession scenario. Sentiment Crash: The market’s been on edge — a sharp move down could trigger a snowball of selling (momentum funds, stop-losses, margin calls). 🚀 Face-Ripping Rally Case: But there's fuel for a huge upside move too: Oversold Conditions: The S&P just had its worst slump since 2020. Technicals could trigger a b...

  RBC Capital Markets has recently revised its projections for the S&P 500 index, citing escalating concerns over U.S. economic growth following the implementation of new tariffs by President Donald Trump. The firm now anticipates that in a full recession scenario, the S&P 500 could decline to between 4,200 and 4,500. ​ Revised Projections: Base Case: RBC has lowered its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,500, down 11% from the previous estimate of 6,200. This adjustment reflects heightened concerns about economic growth stemming from the recent tariff announcements. ​ Bear Case: In the event of a full recession, RBC warns that the S&P 500 could fall to a range between 4,200 and 4,500. This projection is based on historical median and average drawdowns of 27% and 32%, respectively, since the 1930s.   Market Context: The S&P 500 has already experienced significant declines, with a 5.7% drop from its July high, reflecting investor apprehensi...